Friday, June 26, 2009

Apocalypse Not Yet

Wired has a good article on how the Swine Flu apocalypse isn't living up to the hype:
H1N1 had an RØ of about 1.3, high enough to spread the virus but low enough that a strong isolation program could break its back. Its case fatality rate was a wussy 1.9 percent in Mexico and 0.1 percent worldwide. By comparison, the 1918 Spanish flu had an RØ of 2.7 and a case fatality rate of up to 5 percent, making it far more deadly. A real apocalypse, like the killer flu in The Stand — Stephen King's opus of epidemiologic eschatology — would be off the chart, with an RØ of 5 to 6 and a case fatality rate of 99 percent.
Ther'es more information at the link, along with charts and maps. So apparently there's no fear of Captain Trips, at least for now.

1 comments:

rainywalker said...

Just wait, it will be back in 2012 and we are all going to die.