Sunday, June 04, 2017

Losing In The Middle

Will Democrats lose again in the next elections?
According to the study, released on May 17, 86 percent of Americans in the 50-64 demographic continuously identified themselves as Republican from December 2015 to March 2017. Only 72 percent of Democrats in the same demographic continuously remained tied to that party. According to the study, 10 percent of Democrats aged 50-64 stopped identifying as part of the Democratic Party at some point but returned, while 14 percent switched to the Republican Party and did not return. The results showed nearly identical results for Democrats and Republicans in the 30-49 demographic and the 65 and older demographic.

The data used to conduct the Pew study were composed of answers given by 5,154 “panelists” from six surveys taken in “December 2015, April, August, December 2016, and March and April 2017.”

When all age groups were considered, the researchers found nearly identical results for the two political parties. From December 2015 to March 2017, 78 percent of people identifying as Republicans remained Republican over the entire study period, while 9 percent left but returned and 11 percent switched to the Democratic Party side. Similarly, 79 percent of Democrats consistently identified with the party over the same period, while 9 percent left but returned and 10 percent left and did not return.

The data used in the study were weighted to account for multiple perceived biases in the study, such as differences in people who agree to participate in studies compared to those who don’t.

These findings could mean Democrats will have a very difficult time winning back seats in the House and Senate in 2018, the next scheduled election, because the 50-64 demographic is one of the most active, large and wealthy voting blocs. They also tend to make up a disproportionate percentage of the electorate in many important suburban and rural areas, where Democrats struggled mightily in 2016.
I'm sure they'll find plenty to blame except for themselves-they've been doing it so far...

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